How the Communion might vote on the Covenant


Table of Provinces and Member Churches in relation to the Covenant

There are 38 Provinces and 5 Member Churches. 

Please note: this is no more than my best guess today. A number of factors add to its unreliability, not least of which is that I can only go on publicly available sources and reported comments.
  1. It's not clear how much persuasion to sign is being applied by the ACO and others – my guess is a lot.
  2. It's not clear what the impact (if any) of the English vote against will be. I guess it might be of some help to those who wish to resist persuasion, but will probably not make a lot of difference to the basic decision.
  3. There seems little reliable link between earlier critiques in official statements and the final vote (cf. Wales).
  4. I have no way of judging any province's internal politics (cf. Japan).
  5. I don't know whether the final revision to Section 4 will be sufficient for those churches (or their states) which I believe to have constitutional barriers to signing.
  6. There is a good chance that a number of provinces simply won't come to a decision for a long time. Some (Nigeria?) will quite possibly ignore the question altogether.
  7. I've marked a quarter 'Don't know' which is a very high proportion of the final vote.
Overall I think that, assuming the Covenant isn't wholly dead, this is probably too optimistic (from my perspective).  I would guess that 19 might be close to the maximum for the 'No' camp - and may itself be optimistic.

I've not included a separate category for 'still in the process of considering the Covenant'. I guess this is where the ACO will put England for some time to come. This would imply that it would be possible for a Church to flip from 'No' to 'Yes' and vice-versa.

I will update the table as information - or hints - come in. Contributions (especially evidenced) very welcome. Please leave a comment on any blog post or email paulbagshaw@gmail.com

Overall:
Confirmed No
Probable No
Constitutional barriers
Probable Yes 
Confirmed Yes
Qualified Yes
Don't know
2
13
4
8
5
2
10
Total: 19 (43%)
Total: 15 (34%)
Total: 10 (23%)
Provinces: 17, Member Churches: 1
Provinces: 14, Member Churches: 1
Provinces: 7
Member Churches:3


My guess by Province and Member Church
Confirmed No
Church
Comment
P
The Church of England

P
The Episcopal Church in the Philippines

[Top]


Probable No
Church
Comment
P
The Anglican Church in Aotearoa, New Zealand & Polynesia
Tikanga Maori voted against (G. Conger) Nov 2011
P
The Anglican Church of Australia
Dioceses are beginning to vote no. 
P
Igreja Episcopal Anglicana do Brasil
Opposed to Covenant in early days
P
The Anglican Church of Canada

P
Hong Kong Sheng Kung Hui
Opposed to Covenant in early days; also possible constitutional issues; I suspect they've been badly treated too.
P
The Episcopal Church in Jerusalem & The Middle East
Bishop Anis resigned from SCAC as too weak.
P
The Anglican Church of Korea
Earlier comments about Covenant as a colonial tool. But +Victoria Matthews reported to have visited recently
P
The Church of Nigeria (Anglican Communion)
I don't think will want anything to do with the Communion as it is at present
P
L'Eglise Episcopal au Rwanda
G. Conger, October 2010
P
The Scottish Episcopal Church
Most dioceses have said no
P
The Church of the Province of Uganda
I don't think will want anything to do with the Communion as it is at present
P
The Episcopal Church (USA)
Executive Committee opposed. To be debated at this summer's General Convention. Cf. Mark Harris.
M
The Lusitanian Church (E-P to the Archbishop of Canterbury)
Opposed to Covenant in early days; not sure what freedom of action they will feel they have



Constitutional barriers
Church
Comment
P
The Church of Bangladesh
A guess
P
The Church of North India (United)

P
The Church of Pakistan (United)
A guess
P
The Church of South India (United)




Probable Yes
Church
Comment
P
The Anglican Church of Burundi
Archbishop Bernard Ntahoturi chair of IASCUFO
P
The Church of the Province of Central Africa
Bishop James Tengatenga chair of ACC; much support for Zimbabwe; Bp Botswana very pro-West
P
Province de L'Eglise Anglicane Du Congo
To ratify Covenant at next General Assembly
P
The Nippon Sei Ko Kai (The Anglican Communion in Japan)
At its May General Synod, the Japanese church overruled a recommendation from the theological committee of its House of Bishops, and voted to go forward with discussions on an Anglican Covenant. (G. Conger) Dec 2010 Report
P
Anglican Church of Southern Africa
Archbishop Makgoba committed. With dioceses now, return for ratification in 2013
P
The Church of the Province of the Indian Ocean
In 2008 they “were firmly convinced that the proposal Anglican Covenant is crucial” (response, pdf), view repeated 2010.
P
The Church in Wales
Archbishop Barry Morgan changed his tune. Governing body commended to dioceses for ratification at Governing Body April 2012
M
The Church of Ceylon (E-P to the Archbishop of Canterbury)
I seem to remember affirmative comments



Confirmed Yes
Church
Comment
P
La Iglesia Anglicana de Mexico
Apparently by executive action
P
The Church of the Province of Myanmar (Burma)

P
The Anglican Church of Papua New Guinea

P
Iglesia Anglicana del Cono Sur de America

P
The Church in the Province of the West Indies
Well, not a surprise


Qualified Yes
Church
Comment
P
The Church of Ireland
But nothing in Covenant shall override autonomy (not clear how this was formally communicated to ACO, or whether merely reassurance given in debate). TA
P
Church of the Province of South East Asia
Long preamble effectively demanding the failed proposals of Primatial governance of the Communion



Don't know
Church
Comment
P
Iglesia Anglicana de la Region Central de America
Archbishop Armando Guerra Soria is much more conservative than his predecessor.
P
The Anglican Church of Kenya
Possibly a 'No' if it sides with Uganda and Nigeria
P
The Church of the Province of Melanesia

P
The Episcopal Church of the Sudan
Has officially recognised ACNA as the Anglican Church in US
P
The Anglican Church of Tanzania

P
The Church of the Province of West Africa
I'd guess 'Yes'; no evidence
M
Iglesia Episcopal de Cuba

M
Bermuda (Extra-Provincial to Canterbury)

M
The Reformed Episcopal Church of Spain (E-P to the Archbishop of Canterbury)

M
Falkland Islands (Extra-Provincial to Canterbury)
I'd guess 'Yes' simply on smallness and dependency







3 comments:

  1. Anonymous18/4/12

    I think you can no move the Church in Wales to the no box

    Brian Lewis

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous18/4/12

      sorry typing error - meant to say I think you can now move the Church in Wales to the no box

      Delete
    2. Brian,

      I think think I'll leave it for the moment and add a 'waiting to the ACC' comment - or perhaps a separate class.

      I think more than one province is likely to pause now till the ACC, though few are likely to say so explicitly.

      If the England vote killed the Covenant (which I increasingly think to be the case) then it can only be because support for it was always tepid: it had very little political traction if a hiccup could be followed by it stalling altogether.

      But it's not yet overt or explicit and I'm disinclined to count the chickens yet.

      Too many mixed metaphors, sorry.

      Delete